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This research introduces a "safety cage" architecture that monitors runtime indicators like uncertainty quantification to constrain black-box ML models within verified operational domains. By fusing multiple failure detection signals, the framework achieves significant error reductions in safety-critical space missions where ground-truth validation is unavailable. The study highlights the necessity of indicator fusion and formalized coverage-risk frameworks for safely deploying data-driven models in astrophysics.
Operational Range Bounding in Spectroscopy: A Safety Cage Framework for Machine Learning Models
arXiv:2609.13514v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Ensuring the reliability of black-box machine learning models in safety-critical space missions remains a significant challenge, particularly when ground-truth is unavailable for validation. Although machine learning models offer a powerful means to augment standard pipelines by extracting transmission spectra from complex exoplanetary light curves, their susceptibility to unmodelled instrument anomalies, stellar activity, and domain shifts introduces unquantified risks. This study evaluates a modular safety cage architecture that operates as a parallel monitoring layer to assess the validity of a prediction without modifying the underlying estimator. By monitoring different runtime indicators, including uncertainty quantification, out-of-domain detection, and influence functions, the framework constrains the model's operational domain to a verified region. A controlled evaluation is conducted under both in-domain and cross-domain conditions, using datasets from the 2019 and 2021 editions of the Ariel Data Challenges. The results reveal that model failure is multifaceted and that no single indicator captures all failure modes, demonstrating the need for indicator fusion. The application of safety-driven rejection strategies shows that a modest 20% reduction in data coverage results in error reductions between 45% and 65% across different domains and evaluation metrics. Using a formalised coverage-risk framework, a systematic analysis of indicator combinations is performed to identify configurations that maximise risk-ranking accuracy and optimise the trade-off between data coverage and scientific performance. Safety cages provide a transparent mechanism for detecting unreliable predictions and represent a critical step towards the safe deployment of data-driven models in scientific applications, such as astrophysics, where ground truth is seldom available.
Abstract:Ensuring the reliability of black-box machine learning models in safety-critical space missions remains a significant challenge, particularly when ground-truth is unavailable for validation. Although machine learning models offer a powerful means to augment standard pipelines by extracting transmission spectra from complex exoplanetary light curves, their susceptibility to unmodelled instrument anomalies, stellar activity, and domain shifts introduces unquantified risks. This study evaluates a modular safety cage architecture that operates as a parallel monitoring layer to assess the validity of a prediction without modifying the underlying estimator. By monitoring different runtime indicators, including uncertainty quantification, out-of-domain detection, and influence functions, the framework constrains the model's operational domain to a verified region. A controlled evaluation is conducted under both in-domain and cross-domain conditions, using datasets from the 2019 and 2021 editions of the Ariel Data Challenges. The results reveal that model failure is multifaceted and that no single indicator captures all failure modes, demonstrating the need for indicator fusion. The application of safety-driven rejection strategies shows that a modest 20% reduction in data coverage results in error reductions between 45% and 65% across different domains and evaluation metrics. Using a formalised coverage-risk framework, a systematic analysis of indicator combinations is performed to identify configurations that maximise risk-ranking accuracy and optimise the trade-off between data coverage and scientific performance. Safety cages provide a transparent mechanism for detecting unreliable predictions and represent a critical step towards the safe deployment of data-driven models in scientific applications, such as astrophysics, where ground truth is seldom available.
Machine Learning (cs.LG); Earth and Planetary Astrophysics (astro-ph.EP); Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics (astro-ph.IM)
I.2.6; J.2; I.6.4; G.3; I.5.2
arXiv:2609.13514 [cs.LG]
(or arXiv:2609.13514v1 [cs.LG] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2609.13514 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)
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