One Mastery Threshold Does Not Fit All Knowledge Tracing Models

Abstract:Tutoring systems use mastery thresholds to decide when students can stop practicing and advance, but the same numerical threshold can lead to very different decisions when the underlying knowledge tracing (KT) model changes. We examine six KT models across four public educational datasets and evaluate 12 thresholds from 0.50 to 0.99 using post-advancement performance, advancement coverage, practice burden, and disparities across prior-performance groups. We also identify thresholds that balance performance, extra practice, and advancement under 30 predefined instructional settings. Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT) is relatively insensitive to threshold changes, while neural models become much more selective as thresholds increase. This partly reflects different model outputs: BKT estimates latent mastery probability, whereas neural models estimate the probability of a correct next response, so the same cutoff does not represent the same level of mastery. The best-balanced threshold varied substantially across models and settings. In half of the tested settings, neural models and BKT differed by more than 0.10 in their selected thresholds, although this gap became smaller when greater priority was placed on reducing extra practice and allowing more students to advance. Stricter thresholds also did not reliably reduce performance gaps and could disproportionately restrict advancement, with stronger-prior students advancing up to 3.26 times as often as weaker-prior students. These results show that mastery thresholds should be recalibrated when the KT model or instructional priorities change and evaluated by their effects on performance, practice, advancement, and access.

Machine Learning (cs.LG)

arXiv:2610.00095 [cs.LG]

(or arXiv:2610.00095v1 [cs.LG] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2610.00095 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite

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