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This paper shows that common crowdsourcing label aggregators are miscalibrated in opposite directions: Majority Vote tends to be underconfident, while model-based methods like Dawid-Skene and GLAD tend to be overconfident. Its proposed fix, combining an aggregator's output with complementary aggregators before temperature scaling, is simple and reported to help most when each item has many annotations. Readers building labeling pipelines or using LLM-generated labels should note that confidence scores from these methods may not match real reliability without recalibration.
On the Calibration of Crowdsourcing Aggregators
arXiv:2610.16815v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Calibration has been extensively studied for classifiers, but remains largely unexplored for crowdsourcing aggregation methods, which are increasingly used for making probabilistic decisions. To the best of our knowledge, we provide the first theoretical and empirical study of calibration in label aggregation. To our great surprise, we find that widely used aggregation methods can be severely miscalibrated, and in opposite directions: Majority Vote is underconfident while model-based aggregators are overconfident. We prove that the Bayesian aggregator is perfectly calibrated under its data-generating model. We also show that exact calibration of weighted majority votes requires highly restrictive conditions, which helps explain why Majority Vote is generally miscalibrated in realistic crowds. Empirically, we study calibration across $39$ human crowdsourcing datasets and LLM-based crowds. In both cases, we observe systematic miscalibration for aggregation models such as Majority Vote, Dawid--Skene, GLAD, and CrowdFM. Finally, we propose a post-hoc calibration procedure that \emph{aggregates the aggregators}: for any aggregation function $\phi$, we introduce a transformation that first combines its predictive distribution with those of complementary aggregators, before applying temperature scaling. This simple and interpretable transformation makes temperature scaling more effective than when applied directly to $\phi$. It improves calibration, especially in the high-redundancy regime where there are many annotations per item, while generally preserving or even improving accuracy.
Abstract:Calibration has been extensively studied for classifiers, but remains largely unexplored for crowdsourcing aggregation methods, which are increasingly used for making probabilistic decisions. To the best of our knowledge, we provide the first theoretical and empirical study of calibration in label aggregation. To our great surprise, we find that widely used aggregation methods can be severely miscalibrated, and in opposite directions: Majority Vote is underconfident while model-based aggregators are overconfident. We prove that the Bayesian aggregator is perfectly calibrated under its data-generating model. We also show that exact calibration of weighted majority votes requires highly restrictive conditions, which helps explain why Majority Vote is generally miscalibrated in realistic crowds. Empirically, we study calibration across $39$ human crowdsourcing datasets and LLM-based crowds. In both cases, we observe systematic miscalibration for aggregation models such as Majority Vote, Dawid--Skene, GLAD, and CrowdFM. Finally, we propose a post-hoc calibration procedure that \emph{aggregates the aggregators}: for any aggregation function $\phi$, we introduce a transformation that first combines its predictive distribution with those of complementary aggregators, before applying temperature scaling. This simple and interpretable transformation makes temperature scaling more effective than when applied directly to $\phi$. It improves calibration, especially in the high-redundancy regime where there are many annotations per item, while generally preserving or even improving accuracy.
Machine Learning (stat.ML); Machine Learning (cs.LG)
arXiv:2610.16815 [stat.ML]
(or arXiv:2610.16815v1 [stat.ML] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2610.16815 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)
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