Little Venice, little Sparta: The UAE statecraft meets the war on Iran – European Council on Foreign Relations

The UAE has built outsized influence through a strategy of connectivity, turning itself into a hub that binds it to every great power. The American and Israeli war against Iran was the sharpest test of that model. Despite deep economic ties with the UAE, Iran struck Emirati ports, energy sites and financial infrastructure, showing that entanglement does not guarantee protection. The war is pushing Abu Dhabi towards a shift in strategy—“fortified connectivity”. This means keeping its role as a global hub while building spare capacity, alternative routes and sovereign defence production. European countries have a structural stake in this shift. They can influence Emirati policies as Europe is the endpoint of Emirati supply chains, the EU is a regulator whose rules affect Emirati ambitions, and European countries are security partners, with an interest in protecting connectivity infrastructure. The UAE is the textbook definition of punching above its weight. A country of roughly 1.3 million citizens, it has the sixth-largest oil and gas reserves in the world, the second-largest national pool of sovereign wealth fund capital, and a spacecraft in orbit around Mars. Abu Dhabi has turned a small country into a middle power through a distinct method: connectivity—linking, and thereby…