CITIC Securities: Cross-border E-commerce Fulfillment Models Evolve Amid Tighter US-EU Small Package Tariff Policies; Watch for Low-Valuation Allocation Opportunities

36Kr reports that CITIC Securities research indicates that, in terms of the trade environment, the cancellation of small package tariff exemptions in the US is inevitable. The EU will cancel tariff exemptions for packages under €150 starting July 2026 and has clarified that non-EU platforms acting as importers must assume compliance responsibilities. This is accelerating the industry's shift from direct mail small packages to semi-hosted/POP models and overseas warehouse fulfillment, raising entry barriers and likely increasing concentration among top players, though the sector faces short-term pain from compliance rectification. On the demand side, according to Euromonitor, global retail e-commerce volume is projected at approximately $4.66 trillion in 2025 (+10.4% YoY). Major export destinations like the US and Europe maintain mid-to-high single-digit growth rates, while emerging regions grow faster; overall growth outpaces social retail. Looking ahead to 2027, as fulfillment models stabilize, platform players are expected to achieve recovery from a low base in 2026. The report suggests paying attention to the low-valuation allocation window created by the high-pressure policy environment.