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The article argues that the current AI buildout represents a macroeconomic investment surge comparable in scale to China's post-WTO boom, focusing on capital expenditures for chips, data centers, and power rather than just software applications. This perspective frames AI as a fundamental driver of global inflation, labor markets, and geopolitical dynamics through its massive hard-capex requirements.
Is AI the new China Shock?

When China joined the WTO in 2001, that one move set off the largest capital spending boom the world had ever seen. Twenty-five years later, here we are.
When China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, that one move set off the largest capital spending boom the world had ever seen. Investments in factories, machinery, housing and other long-term assets rose from roughly $360 billion in 2000 to $3.2 trillion by 2010. Adjusted for inflation, cumulative Chinese fixed investment over that decade totaled about $20 trillion. In the process, China reshaped global trade, commodities, inflation, labor markets and politics for a generation. Today, another investment surge of comparable magnitude is underway, but most…
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