Interpretable machine learning for predicting splitting strength of asphalt concrete: insights from SHAP analysis

arXiv:2608.00956v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This paper presents an interpretable machine-learning framework for predicting the splitting strength (ST) of asphalt concrete and supporting data-driven mixture design. A database consisting of 296 samples was established, and 14 input variables related to asphalt properties, aggregate gradation, and fiber characteristics were selected for modeling. Six machine-learning models, namely TabPFN, ANN, SVR, RF, XGBoost, and LightGBM, were developed and compared. Hyperparameter optimization was performed for five models using NSGA-II, while TabPFN was directly applied with its default configuration. The results show that all six models achieved satisfactory predictive capability, whereas TabPFN delivered the best overall performance on the testing set, with the lowest RMSE of 0.28, MAE of 0.21, MAPE of 18.01%, MAD of 0.14, the highest R^2 of 0.88, and the highest composite score of 0.91. SHAP analysis further revealed that nine dominant variables accounted for 92.0% of the total average contribution, among which Ag9.5, FT, Ag4.75, AC, and Du were the most influential. In addition, favorable parameter ranges for improving ST were quantified, such as Ag9.5 134.7 cm. Finally, a GUI platform integrating prediction and SHAP-based explanation was developed to improve the accessibility and practical applicability of the proposed framework.

Abstract:This paper presents an interpretable machine-learning framework for predicting the splitting strength (ST) of asphalt concrete and supporting data-driven mixture design. A database consisting of 296 samples was established, and 14 input variables related to asphalt properties, aggregate gradation, and fiber characteristics were selected for modeling. Six machine-learning models, namely TabPFN, ANN, SVR, RF, XGBoost, and LightGBM, were developed and compared. Hyperparameter optimization was performed for five models using NSGA-II, while TabPFN was directly applied with its default configuration. The results show that all six models achieved satisfactory predictive capability, whereas TabPFN delivered the best overall performance on the testing set, with the lowest RMSE of 0.28, MAE of 0.21, MAPE of 18.01%, MAD of 0.14, the highest R^2 of 0.88, and the highest composite score of 0.91. SHAP analysis further revealed that nine dominant variables accounted for 92.0% of the total average contribution, among which Ag9.5, FT, Ag4.75, AC, and Du were the most influential. In addition, favorable parameter ranges for improving ST were quantified, such as Ag9.5 < 66.8%, Ag4.75 < 45.0%, AC < 5.4 wt.%, AV < 3.6%, and Du > 134.7 cm. Finally, a GUI platform integrating prediction and SHAP-based explanation was developed to improve the accessibility and practical applicability of the proposed framework.

Machine Learning (cs.LG)

arXiv:2608.00956 [cs.LG]

(or arXiv:2608.00956v1 [cs.LG] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2608.00956 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

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Interpretable machine learning for predicting splitting strength of asphalt concrete: insights from SHAP analysis

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