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This paper challenges the existential risk narrative surrounding AI by demonstrating that current defenses of the instrumental convergence thesis fail to robustly support arguments about power-seeking behavior. The analysis offers critical insights for researchers and policymakers evaluating the validity of long-termist concerns and the methodology used to assess artificial agent risks.
Instrumental convergence and power-seeking
arXiv:2606.08832v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Recent years have seen increasing concern that artificial intelligence may soon pose an existential risk to humanity. One leading ground for concern is that artificial agents may be power-seeking, aiming to acquire power and in the process disempowering humanity. I show how the argument from power-seeking rests on a strong version of a claim known as the instrumental convergence thesis. I explore leading defenses of the instrumental convergence thesis and argue that none establishes the thesis in a strong enough form to ground the argument from power-seeking. I discuss implications for longtermism, the governance of artificial intelligence, and the methodology of studying risks posed by artificial agents.
Abstract:Recent years have seen increasing concern that artificial intelligence may soon pose an existential risk to humanity. One leading ground for concern is that artificial agents may be power-seeking, aiming to acquire power and in the process disempowering humanity. I show how the argument from power-seeking rests on a strong version of a claim known as the instrumental convergence thesis. I explore leading defenses of the instrumental convergence thesis and argue that none establishes the thesis in a strong enough form to ground the argument from power-seeking. I discuss implications for longtermism, the governance of artificial intelligence, and the methodology of studying risks posed by artificial agents.
Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)
arXiv:2606.08832 [cs.AI]
(or arXiv:2606.08832v1 [cs.AI] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2606.08832 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)
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