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This research addresses the critical challenge of uncertainty estimation in black-box LLMs, specifically within hierarchical taxonomic reasoning tasks like biodiversity monitoring. By training lightweight supervised estimators that account for output structure, the study significantly improves reliability metrics compared to standard token-likelihood baselines. The findings suggest that incorporating hierarchy-aware supervision is essential for building trustworthy AI decision-support systems in scientific pipelines.
Hierarchy-Aware Supervised Uncertainty Estimation for Black-box LLM Taxonomic Reasoning
arXiv:2608.22839v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used for scientific decision support, yet reliable confidence estimation remains difficult in black-box settings. We study uncertainty estimation for hierarchical taxonomic reasoning generated by a black-box LLM in a long-tailed biodiversity monitoring pipeline. Using proxy features extracted by an open-source tool LLM, we train lightweight supervised estimators with hierarchy-aware supervision to predict rank-wise correctness. Across three tool LLMs, the supervised estimators consistently outperform a token-likelihood baseline for micro discrimination and selective prediction under a single global rejection threshold, improving micro AUROC from 0.57 to 0.75--0.80. The best results are achieved by a rank-specific multi-head design (H3), suggesting that accounting for hierarchical output structure is important when a unified abstention rule is required. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/uoguelph-mlrg/hierarchy-aware-llm-uq
Abstract:Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used for scientific decision support, yet reliable confidence estimation remains difficult in black-box settings. We study uncertainty estimation for hierarchical taxonomic reasoning generated by a black-box LLM in a long-tailed biodiversity monitoring pipeline. Using proxy features extracted by an open-source tool LLM, we train lightweight supervised estimators with hierarchy-aware supervision to predict rank-wise correctness. Across three tool LLMs, the supervised estimators consistently outperform a token-likelihood baseline for micro discrimination and selective prediction under a single global rejection threshold, improving micro AUROC from 0.57 to 0.75--0.80. The best results are achieved by a rank-specific multi-head design (H3), suggesting that accounting for hierarchical output structure is important when a unified abstention rule is required. Our code is publicly available at this https URL
Machine Learning (cs.LG); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)
arXiv:2608.22839 [cs.LG]
(or arXiv:2608.22839v1 [cs.LG] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2608.22839 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)
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