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This paper introduces HART, a hybrid architecture combining attention mechanisms with RWKV blocks to address long-horizon degradation in non-autoregressive time series forecasting. By mitigating the identified "Placeholder Idling Decay" issue, the model achieves performance comparable to much larger pure Transformer models while using significantly fewer parameters. This advancement represents a meaningful efficiency gain for foundation models applied to temporal data prediction tasks.
HART: Hybrid Attention-RWKV Time series Foundation Model
arXiv:2610.12883v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Non-autoregressive multi-step forecasting (NAF) enables time series foundation models to predict an entire future horizon in a single forward pass. Despite its strong sequence modeling capabilities, RWKV-7 exhibits long-horizon degradation in our NAF experiments. In this setup, future patches are represented as missing inputs, requiring the recurrent state to evolve across the prediction horizon without new observations. Our analysis of RWKV-7's generalized delta rule suggests a mechanism we term Placeholder Idling Decay (PID): repeated state transitions can attenuate historical information when placeholder-driven writes provide insufficient compensation. Layer-wise analysis reveals reduced state-injection norms in most layers, while transition-matrix norms remain similar between historical and prediction regions, consistent with PID. Motivated by this analysis, we propose HART, a Hybrid Attention-RWKV Time-series Foundation Model that alternates attention and RWKV blocks, combining direct access to historical tokens with recurrent temporal modeling. Controlled experiments on GIFT-Eval and TIME-Benchmark show that HART improves over pure RWKV at medium and long horizons while maintaining comparable short-horizon performance, and achieves better aggregate performance than a comparably sized pure Transformer. With 36M parameters, HART achieves long-horizon MASE comparable to Toto-2.0-1B on GIFT-Eval (0.752 vs. 0.754), using approximately 1/28 of its parameters.
Abstract:Non-autoregressive multi-step forecasting (NAF) enables time series foundation models to predict an entire future horizon in a single forward pass. Despite its strong sequence modeling capabilities, RWKV-7 exhibits long-horizon degradation in our NAF experiments. In this setup, future patches are represented as missing inputs, requiring the recurrent state to evolve across the prediction horizon without new observations. Our analysis of RWKV-7's generalized delta rule suggests a mechanism we term Placeholder Idling Decay (PID): repeated state transitions can attenuate historical information when placeholder-driven writes provide insufficient compensation. Layer-wise analysis reveals reduced state-injection norms in most layers, while transition-matrix norms remain similar between historical and prediction regions, consistent with PID. Motivated by this analysis, we propose HART, a Hybrid Attention-RWKV Time-series Foundation Model that alternates attention and RWKV blocks, combining direct access to historical tokens with recurrent temporal modeling. Controlled experiments on GIFT-Eval and TIME-Benchmark show that HART improves over pure RWKV at medium and long horizons while maintaining comparable short-horizon performance, and achieves better aggregate performance than a comparably sized pure Transformer. With 36M parameters, HART achieves long-horizon MASE comparable to Toto-2.0-1B on GIFT-Eval (0.752 vs. 0.754), using approximately 1/28 of its parameters.
Machine Learning (cs.LG)
arXiv:2610.12883 [cs.LG]
(or arXiv:2610.12883v1 [cs.LG] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2610.12883 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)
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