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This paper introduces generative Bayesian computation, a novel framework using quantile neural networks to estimate posterior distributions without relying on invertible architectures or density evaluations. By applying this method to agent-based Ebola transmission models, the authors demonstrate significantly lower computational costs compared to traditional rejection-based simulation inference. The work advances fundamental machine learning techniques for causal inference and predictive modeling by unifying generative tasks through a noise outsourcing theorem.
Generative Modeling: A Review
arXiv:2501.05458v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We organize the generative-modeling literature around three classes of generators, corresponding to three distinct inferential tasks: estimating counterfactual outcome distributions in causal inference, recovering posteriors from simulated parameter--outcome pairs, and forming predictive outcome distributions. The unifying representation relies on the noise outsourcing theorem of Kallenberg, which expresses a conditional distribution as a deterministic function of its inputs and an independent noise variable. Within this organization we develop generative Bayesian computation, a method in the parameter--outcome class: a quantile neural network, trained on simulated pairs under the pinball loss, that targets the posterior of the parameter directly, without invertible architectures or density evaluation, and that serves equally as a predictive generator once the roles of parameter and outcome are exchanged. We illustrate the framework on an agent-based Ebola transmission application, where generative Bayesian computation recovers accurate posteriors at substantially lower cost than rejection-based simulation inference, while avoiding the density-evaluation and invertibility constraints of competing generators.
Abstract:We organize the generative-modeling literature around three classes of generators, corresponding to three distinct inferential tasks: estimating counterfactual outcome distributions in causal inference, recovering posteriors from simulated parameter--outcome pairs, and forming predictive outcome distributions. The unifying representation relies on the noise outsourcing theorem of Kallenberg, which expresses a conditional distribution as a deterministic function of its inputs and an independent noise variable. Within this organization we develop generative Bayesian computation, a method in the parameter--outcome class: a quantile neural network, trained on simulated pairs under the pinball loss, that targets the posterior of the parameter directly, without invertible architectures or density evaluation, and that serves equally as a predictive generator once the roles of parameter and outcome are exchanged. We illustrate the framework on an agent-based Ebola transmission application, where generative Bayesian computation recovers accurate posteriors at substantially lower cost than rejection-based simulation inference, while avoiding the density-evaluation and invertibility constraints of competing generators.
arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:2305.14972
Computation (stat.CO); Machine Learning (cs.LG)
arXiv:2501.05458 [stat.CO]
(or arXiv:2501.05458v3 [stat.CO] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2501.05458 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite
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