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FINCOSMOS: An Open-World Evaluation Paradigm for Agents in Finance
arXiv:2611.07464v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Language agents increasingly work for users on the open Web, and finance is where trusting them is hardest. The data must come from the Web, the strategy lives in the user's head, and correctness depends on time, so an agent can fail silently: a strategy the user never asked for, unverified data, or a backtest that uses the future yields a report as convincing as a correct one. Existing benchmarks close the world somewhere, fixing the task, the data, or the timeline, and thereby remove these failures instead of measuring them. We introduce FINCOSMOS, an open-world evaluation paradigm for agents doing financial work. A simulated user holds a hidden strategy sampled from a compositional grammar and reveals it only when asked. The agent receives no data, so it must acquire data from the Web, build its own backtest under a data cutoff, and deliver verifiable results. Grading needs no reference answer. Programs verify point-in-time correctness and recompute every reported metric, the delivered strategy is checked against the hidden specification, and a run is accepted only when the user is satisfied and none of 15 veto checks fails. Across four coding agents and a model without tools in 150 sessions, no session is accepted: every session that the simulated user signed off fails a program check, and agents raise only 54--64\% of the details they were not told. Human experts attribute 88.33\% of failures to the agents. With FINCOSMOS feedback, an agent with persistent memory learned all ten tasks.
Abstract:Language agents increasingly work for users on the open Web, and finance is where trusting them is hardest. The data must come from the Web, the strategy lives in the user's head, and correctness depends on time, so an agent can fail silently: a strategy the user never asked for, unverified data, or a backtest that uses the future yields a report as convincing as a correct one. Existing benchmarks close the world somewhere, fixing the task, the data, or the timeline, and thereby remove these failures instead of measuring them. We introduce FINCOSMOS, an open-world evaluation paradigm for agents doing financial work. A simulated user holds a hidden strategy sampled from a compositional grammar and reveals it only when asked. The agent receives no data, so it must acquire data from the Web, build its own backtest under a data cutoff, and deliver verifiable results. Grading needs no reference answer. Programs verify point-in-time correctness and recompute every reported metric, the delivered strategy is checked against the hidden specification, and a run is accepted only when the user is satisfied and none of 15 veto checks fails. Across four coding agents and a model without tools in 150 sessions, no session is accepted: every session that the simulated user signed off fails a program check, and agents raise only 54--64\% of the details they were not told. Human experts attribute 88.33\% of failures to the agents. With FINCOSMOS feedback, an agent with persistent memory learned all ten tasks.
Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI); Computation and Language (cs.CL); Computational Finance (q-fin.CP)
arXiv:2611.07464 [cs.AI]
(or arXiv:2611.07464v1 [cs.AI] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2611.07464 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)
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