Exact probability laws of random inner products: Dirichlet splines, overlaps, uncertainty, and Bargmann invariants

arXiv:2610.25196v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Inner products of random matrices and random quantum states---such as orbital inner products, expectation values, overlaps, and cyclic Bargmann invariants---are shown to follow from two underlying mechanisms: the diagonal of an induced random state is Dirichlet distributed, and the expectation value of a random pure state in a rank-one or two-by-two operator is a numerical shadow on an elliptical disk. For states induced by an environment of dimension $K$, the expectation value of any observable is a Curry--Schoenberg spline with each eigenvalue repeated $K$ times, and the vector of moments has an explicit density on a simplex; for a qutrit, the variance law is obtained in finite form. The overlap of two random qubit states attains its mode at its mean for every rotation-invariant ensemble, but for Hilbert--Schmidt qutrits the density at the mean has a strictly negative derivative, so mode and mean separate; for large environments, the centred overlap converges to a variance-gamma law rather than a Gaussian. For two noncommuting qubit observables, the joint law of the two standard deviations is derived for all $K$, and the probability of coming within a small distance of the optimal sum of variances scales as a power of that distance, with a different exponent when the Bloch axes are orthogonal. For three Haar-random qubit states, the exact density of the Bargmann invariant is given in terms of a complete elliptic integral, together with its local behaviour and elementary marginals. In every dimension, the probability that its real part is negative---certifying basis-independent coherence---is computed, along with all mixed moments. For cycles of arbitrary length, the invariant is shown to be driven by an exact three-parameter Markov chain, and the logarithm of its modulus obeys a law of large numbers and a central limit theorem.