EviCast: Forecasting Retrieval Gains Through Shared Response Calibration

Abstract:Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) extends large language models with external evidence, yet relevant evidence does not ensure that a generator can use it. Indiscriminate retrieval can degrade task performance while adding retrieval and long-context inference costs. Existing methods neither determine before large-scale execution whether a generator, task distribution, and retriever configuration is worth deploying nor diagnose multiple candidate retrievers under a shared budget. We introduce EviCast, a framework that forecasts retrieval value through interventional evidence-state decomposition. EviCast measures a generator's response to controlled evidence states once and combines this shared profile with the offline evidence-state distribution of each candidate retriever, yielding the end-to-end net utility and its 95% lower confidence bound without executing every RAG configuration. A state-refinement analysis characterizes when its binary and topology-aware instantiations are exact and when shared calibration is statistically more efficient than per-retriever calibration. In frozen evaluations, EviCast correctly decides all 14 HotpotQA retrieval configurations with a forecast error of 2.75 F1 points while reducing diagnostic generation calls by 80%, and it attains the lowest forecast error among seven predictors in the low-budget regime. Its topology-aware instantiation, EviCast-T, captures the complementarity between terminal and bridge evidence, correctly deciding all 16 configurations on MuSiQue and HotpotQA and 23 of 24 after prospective transfer to a third dataset. These results show that retrieval deployment depends on both evidence availability and the generator's ability to convert evidence structure into stable net utility. Code is available at this https URL.

Computation and Language (cs.CL); Machine Learning (cs.LG)

arXiv:2611.02387 [cs.CL]

(or arXiv:2611.02387v1 [cs.CL] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2611.02387 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

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