Error-Aware Reverse Auction Mechanism for Large Language Model Routing

Abstract:Routing each query to a cost-effective large language model (LLM) is critical for balancing quality and cost, yet most routers rely on a centralized task center to predict model performance, creating an information-risk mismatch and a scalability bottleneck as the model pool grows. We formulate LLM routing as a market-based allocation problem among strategic providers and propose a routing paradigm that shifts ex-ante prediction to LLM providers via a reverse auction, where providers submit self-predicted acceptance probabilities and execution costs. To account for noisy provider predictions and center evaluations, we introduce the \textit{\textbf{E}rror-\textbf{A}ware \textbf{R}everse \textbf{A}uction \textbf{M}echanism} (EA-RAM), which explicitly models this Dual Error. We prove that, under a private-evaluation-belief structure, truthful effective-surplus reporting is incentive compatible in the reduced-form score space and individually rational under sellers' subjective beliefs, establish sufficient conditions for center rationality, and derive an explicit social-welfare loss bound. We further identify robustness effects: opposite-signed errors can cancel, vanishing-tail link functions (e.g., logistic) stabilize clear-cut cases via saturation, and extra noise smooths belief maps and reduces their maximal local sensitivity. Simulations and real-world benchmarks show that EA-RAM is robust to Dual Error and achieves a better cost--performance Pareto frontier than centralized baselines, with additional gains from provider-side local information, validating its practical effectiveness.

Computer Science and Game Theory (cs.GT); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)

arXiv:2608.12719 [cs.GT]

(or arXiv:2608.12719v2 [cs.GT] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2608.12719 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite

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