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EnSol advances molecular solubility prediction by integrating environmental variables like temperature and solvent interactions into a graph neural network framework, addressing key limitations in current deterministic models. This probabilistic approach leverages cross-attention mechanisms to capture complex chemical dynamics while quantifying experimental uncertainty, offering significant improvements over state-of-the-art benchmarks for drug development workflows.
EnSol: an environment-aware graph neural network for molecular solubility prediction
arXiv:2609.21151v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Molecular solubility directly affects key aspects of molecular development such as reaction feasibility, formulation performance, separation efficiency, and solvent selection. However, experimental measurement across solutes, solvents, and temperatures remains costly and sparsely sampled. Existing computational models often rely on fixed-solvent assumptions, deterministic formulations, or simplified representations of solute-solvent interactions, limiting their ability to capture complex molecular interactions, continuous temperature effects, and experimental uncertainty. Here, we introduce EnSol, an environment-aware probabilistic framework for molecular solubility prediction. EnSol represents the solute and solvent as molecular graphs and learns separate representations for each before bringing them together through cross-attention to capture solute-solvent interactions. Temperature is incorporated directly into the solvent environment through feature-wise modulation, and a mixture density network predicts full solubility distributions to capture both temperature-dependent behavior and experimental uncertainty. On the independent SolProp and Leeds benchmark datasets, EnSol achieved Spearman correlations of 0.876 and 0.601, respectively, outperforming state-of-the-art solubility prediction models across both benchmarks. Beyond computational benchmarking, experimental validation across chemically diverse solute-solvent pairs showed that EnSol maintained strong predictive performance and supported reliable solvent ranking, achieving a Spearman correlation of 0.715. These results show that EnSol can support reliable solubility prediction and solvent selection across diverse chemical systems while accounting for predictive uncertainty.
Abstract:Molecular solubility directly affects key aspects of molecular development such as reaction feasibility, formulation performance, separation efficiency, and solvent selection. However, experimental measurement across solutes, solvents, and temperatures remains costly and sparsely sampled. Existing computational models often rely on fixed-solvent assumptions, deterministic formulations, or simplified representations of solute-solvent interactions, limiting their ability to capture complex molecular interactions, continuous temperature effects, and experimental uncertainty. Here, we introduce EnSol, an environment-aware probabilistic framework for molecular solubility prediction. EnSol represents the solute and solvent as molecular graphs and learns separate representations for each before bringing them together through cross-attention to capture solute-solvent interactions. Temperature is incorporated directly into the solvent environment through feature-wise modulation, and a mixture density network predicts full solubility distributions to capture both temperature-dependent behavior and experimental uncertainty. On the independent SolProp and Leeds benchmark datasets, EnSol achieved Spearman correlations of 0.876 and 0.601, respectively, outperforming state-of-the-art solubility prediction models across both benchmarks. Beyond computational benchmarking, experimental validation across chemically diverse solute-solvent pairs showed that EnSol maintained strong predictive performance and supported reliable solvent ranking, achieving a Spearman correlation of 0.715. These results show that EnSol can support reliable solubility prediction and solvent selection across diverse chemical systems while accounting for predictive uncertainty.
Machine Learning (cs.LG); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)
arXiv:2609.21151 [cs.LG]
(or arXiv:2609.21151v1 [cs.LG] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2609.21151 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)
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