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This paper addresses a niche but critical optimization problem in applying machine learning models to infrastructure asset management, specifically focusing on covariate scaling techniques for Markov deterioration hazard models. By systematically evaluating four different scaling transformations against bridge inspection data, the study provides empirical evidence to improve the numerical conditioning and robustness of these specialized predictive pipelines. While the application domain is civil engineering, the core contribution lies in refining machine learning estimation procedures for specific stochastic models.
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Convergence-Aware Pareto Selection of Covariate Scaling Transformations for Markov Deterioration Hazard Models: Evidence from Bridge Inspection Data

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arXiv:2609.31786v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Maximum likelihood estimation of Markov deterioration hazard models for infrastructure asset management is sensitive to the numerical conditioning of explanatory covariates, yet production pipelines often adopt a single scaling convention without systematic justification. We study four covariate scaling transformations---baseline max scaling, min-max scaling, z-score scaling, and Box-Cox transformation with a training-derived positivity shift---applied to an Exponential Hazard Markov (EHM) model estimated via L-BFGS-B on bridge inspection transition data.

Abstract:Maximum likelihood estimation of Markov deterioration hazard models for infrastructure asset management is sensitive to the numerical conditioning of explanatory covariates, yet production pipelines often adopt a single scaling convention without systematic justification. We study four covariate scaling transformations---baseline max scaling, min-max scaling, z-score scaling, and Box-Cox transformation with a training-derived positivity shift---applied to an Exponential Hazard Markov (EHM) model estimated via L-BFGS-B on bridge inspection transition data.

Methodology (stat.ME); Machine Learning (cs.LG)

arXiv:2609.31786 [stat.ME]

(or arXiv:2609.31786v1 [stat.ME] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2609.31786 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

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