Black box behavioural modelling: Predicting human activity schedules with a deep conditional generative approach

Abstract:Modelling the complexity and diversity of human activity scheduling behaviour is inherently challenging. We demonstrate ActVAE, a deep conditional-generative machine learning approach for the modelling of activity schedules. Suitable for application in activity-based demand modelling frameworks, schedules are modelled as conditional on individual, household and schedule information, such as age, income, and access to public transit. We demonstrate the rapid generation of precise, realistic and diverse schedules dependent on input labels. We extensively evaluate and compare model capabilities against baseline models using a joint-density estimation framework. In addition to providing a novel alternative to existing scheduling approaches, our work highlights the value of explicitly modelling the randomness of complex and diverse human behaviours.

Machine Learning (cs.LG)

arXiv:2512.04223 [cs.LG]

(or arXiv:2512.04223v2 [cs.LG] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2512.04223 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite

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