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The paper proposes using an LLM's stated assumptions about a user's trade-offs, such as willingness to pay, to build a starting prior for a Bayesian preference model, which helps when a new deployment has no historical choice data. Reported gains are largest over uninformed priors (5-40 points) and in-context learning (up to 18 points), and the authors say the method roughly matches 6-40 surveyed users. The benefit is concentrated in a deployment's first users, and the results come from seven choice datasets, so readers should check how well they transfer to other domains and to LLMs whose elicited trade-offs may be less reliable.
Agentic-Priors: Using Large Language Models to Address the Cold Start Problem in Preference Elicitation
arXiv:2610.21938v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: An agent that learns a user's preferences from their choices faces a cold start problem: before any choices are observed, it must rely solely on a prior. Informative priors are usually fitted to historical choice data, which new tasks and deployments lack. To address this, we present Agentic-Priors, which lets agentic systems use the implicit knowledge of large language models (LLMs) instead. Specifically, an LLM states a new user's trade-offs in interpretable terms, such as willingness to pay or value of time, which we map to a prior over multinomial logit coefficients. This prior is then refined by a Bayesian learner as choices are observed. Across seven choice datasets, Agentic-Priors improves cold start accuracy over an uninformed prior by 5-40 percentage points. It also outperforms AutoElicit, a state-of-the-art LLM prior-elicitation method, on three datasets and loses on one. It is up to 18 points more accurate than in-context learning, and never significantly worse. Against hierarchical Bayes models fitted to surveys of increasing size, our approach is worth roughly 6-40 surveyed users, in terms of log-loss, so its value is concentrated in a deployment's first users.
Abstract:An agent that learns a user's preferences from their choices faces a cold start problem: before any choices are observed, it must rely solely on a prior. Informative priors are usually fitted to historical choice data, which new tasks and deployments lack. To address this, we present Agentic-Priors, which lets agentic systems use the implicit knowledge of large language models (LLMs) instead. Specifically, an LLM states a new user's trade-offs in interpretable terms, such as willingness to pay or value of time, which we map to a prior over multinomial logit coefficients. This prior is then refined by a Bayesian learner as choices are observed. Across seven choice datasets, Agentic-Priors improves cold start accuracy over an uninformed prior by 5-40 percentage points. It also outperforms AutoElicit, a state-of-the-art LLM prior-elicitation method, on three datasets and loses on one. It is up to 18 points more accurate than in-context learning, and never significantly worse. Against hierarchical Bayes models fitted to surveys of increasing size, our approach is worth roughly 6-40 surveyed users, in terms of log-loss, so its value is concentrated in a deployment's first users.
Multiagent Systems (cs.MA); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)
arXiv:2610.21938 [cs.MA]
(or arXiv:2610.21938v1 [cs.MA] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2610.21938 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)
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