AeroChem: Closed-loop Physics-Informed State Space Modeling for Long-term Chemically-Reactive Air Quality Forecasting--Extended Version

Abstract:Accurate long-term air quality forecasting is challenging due to long-range transport, meteorological variability, and nonlinear chemical reactions underlying secondary pollutant formation. Purely data-driven models often suffer from long-horizon drift and lack physical consistency, while existing physics-informed approaches commonly follow open-loop designs that fuse neural and physical components only at the output level. We propose AeroChem, a closed-loop physics-informed state space framework for chemically reactive air quality forecasting. AeroChem adopts a two-branch co-correction design: a UDE-based process branch provides a structured but imperfect physical prior, while a Mamba-based virtual measurement branch captures long-range temporal context and produces probabilistic virtual observations. Neural Kalman Fusion couples the two branches by correcting the latent physical state at each forecasting step and feeding the posterior state back into the simulator, reducing long-horizon drift. We further introduce HanoiAir, a real-world dataset integrating pollutant concentrations, meteorology, and emission inventories. Experiments on HanoiAir and a public benchmark show that AeroChem improves long-horizon stability and sudden-change forecasting.

25 pages. An extended version of "AeroChem: Closed-loop Physics-Informed State Space Modeling for Long-term Chemically-Reactive Air Quality Forecasting--Extended Version" accepted at NeurIPS 2026

Machine Learning (cs.LG); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI); Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science (cs.CE)

arXiv:2610.16630 [cs.LG]

(or arXiv:2610.16630v1 [cs.LG] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2610.16630 arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)