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This study challenges the assumption that increasing model depth always improves world models by revealing three distinct regimes where extra compute helps, actively hurts due to training-induced inversion, or has negligible impact. The findings demonstrate that planning performance is not an intrinsic task property but depends heavily on specific operating configurations like metric space and encoder choices, offering a critical nuance for scaling autoregressive rollouts in robotics control.
Adaptive Compute in Latent World Models: When Depth Helps, Hurts, or Doesn't Matter
arXiv:2607.10203v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Adaptive compute for world models -- early-exit or mixture-of-depths predictors that spend variable depth per rollout step -- presumes that extra depth buys better predictions. In autoregressive rollouts, where planning actually happens, that premise requires depth's per-step precision to survive composition. We test it directly with one pre-registered instrument, the shallow penalty rho = err(shallowest-exit rollout)/err(full-depth rollout), on nine DeepMind Control tasks under matched single-step (K=1) and multi-step (K=4) training, eight seeds each. Three regimes emerge: depth helps (intrinsic, 6/9 tasks, rho up to 8x), depth actively hurts (inversion, 2/9, rho down to 0.87x), or depth barely matters (flat). The inversion is created by training, not the dynamics: supervising early exits only at the first rollout step erases it (Delta=+0.28, n=8, non-overlapping distributions) -- a routability catch-22: the per-step deep supervision that makes exits routable also trains them to out-roll the full stack. The regime is predictable: a frozen dimensionality-only classifier, committed before training, labels held-out tasks correctly out-of-sample, including an extreme extrapolation. The inversion reproduces under a transformer predictor, yet its manifestation is configuration-dependent, shifting with metric space, horizon, encoder, backbone, and -- most strongly -- training data: on the two tasks we retrained, competent-policy data removes both the inversion and the intrinsic tradeoff, loss unchanged. In a CEM planner, rho predicts whether planning benefits from depth. Every threshold and gate was committed before the corresponding compute, including a pre-registered negative for the motivating hypothesis. Whether more compute helps a world model is not a task property; it is a property of the operating configuration, with a stable, predictable, mechanism-backed core.
Abstract:Adaptive compute for world models -- early-exit or mixture-of-depths predictors that spend variable depth per rollout step -- presumes that extra depth buys better predictions. In autoregressive rollouts, where planning actually happens, that premise requires depth's per-step precision to survive composition. We test it directly with one pre-registered instrument, the shallow penalty rho = err(shallowest-exit rollout)/err(full-depth rollout), on nine DeepMind Control tasks under matched single-step (K=1) and multi-step (K=4) training, eight seeds each. Three regimes emerge: depth helps (intrinsic, 6/9 tasks, rho up to 8x), depth actively hurts (inversion, 2/9, rho down to 0.87x), or depth barely matters (flat). The inversion is created by training, not the dynamics: supervising early exits only at the first rollout step erases it (Delta=+0.28, n=8, non-overlapping distributions) -- a routability catch-22: the per-step deep supervision that makes exits routable also trains them to out-roll the full stack. The regime is predictable: a frozen dimensionality-only classifier, committed before training, labels held-out tasks correctly out-of-sample, including an extreme extrapolation. The inversion reproduces under a transformer predictor, yet its manifestation is configuration-dependent, shifting with metric space, horizon, encoder, backbone, and -- most strongly -- training data: on the two tasks we retrained, competent-policy data removes both the inversion and the intrinsic tradeoff, loss unchanged. In a CEM planner, rho predicts whether planning benefits from depth. Every threshold and gate was committed before the corresponding compute, including a pre-registered negative for the motivating hypothesis. Whether more compute helps a world model is not a task property; it is a property of the operating configuration, with a stable, predictable, mechanism-backed core.
Machine Learning (cs.LG); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)
arXiv:2607.10203 [cs.LG]
(or arXiv:2607.10203v3 [cs.LG] for this version)
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