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The WTO's revised forecast attributes a significant portion of the expected 2026 trade growth directly to strong investment in the artificial intelligence sector, signaling AI as a primary driver for global economic expansion rather than an incidental factor. While geopolitical tensions impact services trade, the report highlights AI infrastructure spending as a key variable reshaping merchandise trade projections.
WTO Raises Global Trade Growth Forecast for 2026
The World Trade Organization released its latest Global Trade Outlook report on the 8th, stating that due to supply chain adjustments and strong investment in the artificial intelligence sector, global merchandise trade is expected to grow by 3.9% in 2026, up from the March forecast of 1.9%, with growth projected at 4.1% for 2027. The report also indicates that due to the impact of the Middle East conflict on transportation and international travel, global services trade is expected to grow by 3.3% in 2026, below the March forecast of 4.8%, with growth projected at 6.4% for 2027. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala stated that in the face of shocks, an integrated world economy and a rules-based trade system provide flexibility for economies, ensuring that essential goods continue to flow to businesses and families that need them.
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